Proshare Logo
   Market Date: 22-08-2014   
Archives Bond Market Frauds & Scandals Market Updates MoneyIssues Mutual Funds NSE & Capital Market Opinion & Analysis Pensions Proshare Analyst Views Proshare Law Q & A with CEO Regulators Reviews and Outlook Taxation The Economy

Politics and markets: Less systemic, more specific -

  Read (471)

Thursday, January 16, 2014 3:44 PM / alastair.newton@nomura.com

 

Key Judgments (An 'Issues which keep me awake at night' Interim Update)

 

Markets’ interest in politics in 2014 is, I believe, likely to be rooted principally in country-specific – rather than systemic – risk, in particular:

 

MENA (Issue #1): Although Iran  (page 5) is likely to remain the major political (and potentially systemic) issue bearing on the oil price, other countries also have the capacity to move markets, eg, Iraq (page 6), Libya (page 11).

 

EM elections: Brazil (Issue #2, page 13), India (page 14), Indonesia (page 15), South Africa (page 16), Turkey (page 18) and, possibly, Thailand (page 17) all hold potentially market-moving elections in 2014.

 

China/Japan (Issue #3 and #4): The recent sharp uptick in frictions around China’s declaration of an air defence zone could have economic repercussions.

 

United States (Issue #5)/Eurozone (Issue #6): My base case of stability notwithstanding, sclerotic governance could trigger a crisis in the US or the EU.

 

Civil unrest (Issue #7): Ongoing events in Thailand (page 18) and Ukraine (Issue #9) highlight the vulnerability of a range of economies to civil unrest.

 

Kindly download the full report here



Tags: Politics,  markets,  alastair,  newton,  MENA,  Iran,  Iraq,  Libya,  EM elections,  Brazil,  India,  Indonesia,  South Africa,  Turkey,  possibly,  Thailand , 


Comment With Your Facebook or Yahoo! ID


Latest Articles


Latest news

About Us

Who We Are
Our Team & Partners
Corporate Governance
Advertise with Us
Subscribe / Unsubscribe
Site Map
News Feed - RSS
Newsletter
Contact Us
Message from CEO
Resources

News & Features
The Analyst / Market Data
Investor Relations Portal
The Regulator
Economy & Politics
WebTV
Training Portal
Events Calendar
NewsStands - Online Reputation

Products and Services

Research & Market Intelligence
Analyst Services
Offers & Rights Support Service
Investor Relations Services
Alert & Subscription Services
Share Support Services
Proshare Consult
Event & Seminar Coverage
Market Directory
File a Complaint
News & Analysis

#1minNews
News from TheANALYST
Video News from WebTV
Money Market Updates
Opinions & Analysis
Nigerian Economy
Market Data
The Regulator
Newsletters
Discussion Forum
Policy

Subscriber Agreement
Privacy Policy
Data Policy
Disclaimer
Copyright Policy
Trademarks
Comments in Site
Advertising Code
Conflict of Interest
Content Partnership
3rd Parties

Online Trading and Execution
Training
Legal Support Services
Web/Technology Services
File a Complaint