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Composite Price Index drops to 7.8% in October 2013; points lower to 8% recorded in September

Category: Nigerian Economy

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Composite Price Index drops to 7.8% in October 2013; points lower to 8% recorded in September

Thursday, November 14, 2013  /National Bureau of Statistics

In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures inflation rose by 7.8 per cent year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points lower from 8.0 percent recorded in September. Rates recorded in October indicate a continually downward trend for the 10th consecutive month. This is also the lowest rate recorded in the index since March 2008.

Food prices continued to trend lower for the third consecutive month as a result of the harvest season that traditionally begins in July of the year.

The harvest has weighed on prices in the Bread and Cereals, Meat, Fish, and Dairy classes. While prices in the Potatoes, Yam, Other tubers class remains unchanged, again indicating a moderation, prices strengthened in the Oils and Fats, Fruits and Vegetable classes.

On the other hand, the core sub index has trended upwards for the fourth consecutive month. The rate of increase was however tempered by moderations in the “Housing Water, Electricity, Gas and Other fuels” as a result of moderation in liquid fuel (kerosene) prices, the Transportation division as well as the Education division as demand for items such as textbooks have moderated being well into the school year.

It should be noted that the Headline Index is made up of the Core Index and Farm Produce items. As Processed Foods are included in both the Core and Food sub-indices, this implies that these sub-indices are not mutually-exclusive.

In October, the Headline index increased by 0.75 per cent month on month, relatively unchanged from the rate of increase observed in the headline index in September.

The Urban composite CPI was recorded at 149.1 points in October, a 7.9 percent year-on-year increase.

This was marginally lower from the 8.0 percent year-on-year change recorded in September. The corresponding Rural National CPI recorded a 7.8 per cent year-on-year change in October, 0.2 percentage points lower from the 8.0 per cent recorded in September.

On a month-on-month basis, the Urban All-items index increased by 0.8 per cent in October, unchanged from the rate recorded in September, the Rural All Items index was also roughly unchanged from month-on rates recorded in September as it increased by 0.73 percent.

The percentage change in the average Composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending in october 2013 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was recorded at 9.2 per cent, 0.3 percentage points lower than the average twelve month rate of change of 9.5 percent recorded in September. The corresponding 12month year-on-year average percentage change for the Urban index was 9.8 per cent, while the corresponding Rural index was recorded at 8.7 percent.


The influence of the harvest season has weighed on the rate of increase of food prices for the third consecutive month. As indicated by the Food sub-index, food prices rose by 9.2 percent year-on-year in October, 0.2 percentage points lower from the 9.4 percent recorded in September

Food prices also moderated on a month-on-month basis. The Food sub-index increased by 0.8 percent in October, marginally lower from 0.9 per cent recorded in September.

In October, on a month-on-month basis, the highest price increases were recorded in Milk Egg and Cheese, Fruit and Vegetable classes, and other foods note elsewhere classified. The average annual rate of rise of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending in October 2013 was 10.0 per cent when compared with the same period in 2012.

This was marginally lower than the 12 month average year-on-year change for the period ending in September (10.1 percent).


After bottoming out for the year in June at 5.5 percent, the “All items less Farm Produce” or Core index, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products continues to trend upwards. Prices increased for the fourth consecutive month in October to 7.6 percent, up by 0.2 percentage points from 7.4 percent recorded in September. On a month-on-month basis, the Core sub index was recorded at 0.6 per cent, roughly unchanged from rates recorded in September.

The increase in the core sub-index was as a result of price increases across various class items in particular: Household textiles, Clothing materials, other articles of clothing and clothing accessories Accommodation services, and Recreational and Sporting Services.

The average 12 month annual rate of rise of the index was recorded at 8.6 per cent for the twelve-month period ending in October 2013, down 0.3 percentage points from 8.9 per cent recorded in September 2013.

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Tags: Price Index,  Consumer Price Index,  CPI,  inflation,  National Bureau of Statistics,  Oils and Fats,  Fruits,  Vegetable,  Bread and Cereals,  Meat,  Fish, 

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